When Tony Richards, the head of payments policy at the Reserve Depository financial institution of Australia (RBA), read the recent survey results from Finder's Crypto Report, which stated that almost one in v Australians endemic crypto, he didn't believe it for a second.

Even so, the results had already been widely published around the state, gracing headlines for weeks. They even made their mode into the recent Senate Committee on Commonwealth of australia as a Applied science and Financial Middle'due south final report in October.

Welcome to the statistically dubious world of cryptocurrency surveys — an easy manner for companies to get publicity by hawking survey results, merely non necessarily a groovy way to stay informed.

The Finder survey from August claimed that 17% of Australians ain at least one cryptocurrency — ix% own Bitcoin, 8% own Ether and v% own Dogecoin.

Is the figure plausible?

Richards called these figures into question in his address to the Australia Corporate Treasury Association on Nov. 18, saying that he finds them "somewhat implausible."

"I cannot help thinking that the online surveys they are based on might exist unrepresentative of the population," he said.

He referenced "important segments of the population" including the elderly, people living in regional areas, and those without reliable access to the internet, that online survey panels "do not capture well."

His point echoes a like sentiment outlined by Dr. Chittaranjan Andrade in his 2022 report for the Indian Journal of Psychological Medicine, where he claims online survey samples are oft unrepresentative, regardless of the subject.

Online surveys are completed merely past people who are "sufficiently biased to exist interested in the discipline; why else would they take the fourth dimension and trouble to respond?" he wrote.

Just the caput of consumer research at Finder, Graham Cooke, defended the methodology, telling Cointelegraph:

"The respondents are selected based on age, gender and location to create a sample which adequately reflects the results that would exist expected from a total national survey."

"We are confident that this produces a trustworthy sample which is representative of the population," he added.

In the 15-page report, which summarized the survey results, in that location are only a few lines at the finish to explain the methodology. It says: "Finder'south Consumer Sentiment Tracker is an ongoing nationally representative survey of 1,000 Australians each month, with more than 27,400 respondents betwixt May 2022 and July 2022."

The survey is conducted by Qualtrics, a Systems Applications and Products in Information Processing (SAP) company. Qualtrics' website boasts, "in simply ten weeks, Finder lifted make awareness 23 percent," but at that place was no additional information regarding survey methodology, and none was provided in response to a request from Cointelegraph.

A Finder spokesperson was able to confirm to Cointelegraph that: "Qualtrics collects respondents from various panels and can be incentivized in different ways. Some are paid a small fee for their participation, some earn a charity donation, for case."

Unlike surveys take big differences

This is not to unmarried out Finder's survey for detail criticism: In that location appears to be a new survey every 24-hour interval and often their findings are at odds with one another or are unclear at best.

Accept the YouGov survey commissioned by Australian crypto commutation Swyftx, which found that the number of Australians who hold or accept ever held crypto is closer to 25%. The July survey nerveless responses from 2,768 adult Australians, and the figures were weighted using estimates from the Australian Agency of Statistics. This survey was institute to be compliant with the Australian Polling Council Code.

Source: Swyftx, Annual Australia cryptocurrency survey

However, both surveys can't exist correct. The population of Australia is 25.69 million. This means that Finder's 17% of the Australian population equates to roughly four.37 million people. Meanwhile, Swyftx's 25% is well-nigh half-dozen.42 million people.

The difference between the two estimates translates to just over ii meg people — that's more than the entire population of S Australia.

Or tin can they both be correct? The kicker is the six words, "or take held in the by" which takes the statistic from 17% to 25%. Finder's survey framed the question as "Do you own cryptocurrency?" whereas Swyftz asked respondents which answer applies best to them, with two of the options beingness: "I currently own cryptocurrency" and "I practice not currently own cryptocurrency, but I take in the past."

These two groups were added together to come to 25% - a slight lexical variation that many readers could easily miss. Swyft actually too found that 17% of the respondents currently own crypto.

But the numbers also don't appear to be reflected on local platforms. Crypto trading platform Binance Australia told Cointelegraph that it had 700,000 users, Easy Crypto Australia said it had around 15,000 users, Swyftx has 470,000 users (many from overseas). BTC Markets has over 330 000 Australian users and Independent Reserve'due south site claims 200,000 users.

Digital Surge, eToro, Coinspot, and Coinmama did non respond with user numbers.

Not all Australians use a local exchange to trade their crypto of course, simply on the other hand, a significant proportion of users are signed up to multiple local exchanges. There appears to be a mismatch of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, between survey results and exchange accounts.

That said, Jonathon Miller, Australian director Kraken exchange, said that his platform came upwardly with similar figures to Finder in YouGov market enquiry in May.

The sample in that survey included 1,027 Australians aged eighteen years and older, the data weighted past age, gender and region to reflect the latest ABS population estimates.

It found that ​​one in five (19%) Aussies have owned or currently own a cryptocurrency, and 14% (two.78 million) currently accept a crypto portfolio.

Speaking to the Finder survey, Miller said: "I don't think it'southward going to be that far off. The point is that these surveys are probably representative."

"If those numbers aren't exactly right today, they will be tomorrow. I think it's true that ane in five Australians have crypto."

How many BTC do I need to pay you to say y'all trust BTC?

One issue that could exist affecting the results of crypto-related surveys is that respondents to some of these surveys are actually being paid in crypto.

On Nov. 18, a Premise Data survey of 11,000 participants across 76 countries claimed that 41% of people globally trust Bitcoin (BTC) over local currencies.

The catch was, a dissever survey of Premise'southward "contributors" ii months earlier reported 23% of its contributor base have been paid in BTC, and since 2022, the data collection company has paid out over $ane million in Bitcoin via Coinbase to survey participants in 137 countries globally.

Melbourne Constitute of Applied Economic and Social Inquiry Principal Research Boyfriend Nicole Watson told Cointelegraph that "paying someone Bitcoin to consummate a survey almost cryptocurrency would bias the effect."

"People who know what Bitcoin is and desire some would exist more than probable to take function," she said. In short,  they're not going to exist cogitating of the wider population.

Cointelegraph reached out to Premise virtually its survey methodology, just received no response.

What makes a trustworthy survey?

In Watson's opinion, online-only surveys are non representative of the wider population.

"Recruiting a sample online is likely to bias the sample towards people who spend more than time online, visit sure websites, or use certain apps, depending on where the invitation to participate placed and who might meet information technology."

She explained that someone'southward participation in a survey could be influenced by who is running it, what information technology is near, how long it will take and what (if any) incentives are offered — all of which may bias the results.

"For a new technology like cryptocurrency, you can see how many of these factors could pb to a biased upshot."

For research conducted in Australia, a good manner to tell whether the findings are trustworthy is by checking whether it has been issued an "Australian Polling Council Quality Mark." In the United Kingdom, you can look to see whether the polling visitor is a member of the British Polling Quango (BPC) and in the Usa, the National Council on Public Polls.

The Australian Polling Council says that whatever survey or poll worth its weight should include a "long methodology statement," including additional information like weighting methods, constructive sample size and margin of error.

Edits were made on Dec. 6 to clarify that the survey by Swyft institute that 25% of Australians have own or currently ain cryptocurrency. Finder'southward survey found that 17% of Australians currently concord cryptocurrency, but didn't inquire respondents almost whether they accept held cryptocurrency in the past.